How many points would Jordan average in todays era....

 

How many points would Michael Jordan average if he were a player in the modern NBA? 30? 35? Could he even acclude even 40? Considering this is a hypothetical there's no true right answer. However, many people who we refer to as "old heads" say a prime Michael Jordan would average 40 points in the Modern era. But why do they think this? Is it just because they're big fans or is a prime Michael Jordan really capable of averaging 40 points in this era...well that's take a statical approach and try to come to a conclusion...

 To understand the following text one thing that is worthy of a mention is that Michael Jordan is the greatest scorer the NBA has ever laid their eyes on. Establishing Jordan as the greatest scorer should be as nice starting point as nobody in the history of this sport could match his dominance in that aspect of basketball wether were looking at eye test or on the stat sheet. Michael has the highest regular season PPG average ever standing at 30.1. He is also at the top of the mountain when it comes to playoff scoring PPG at 33.4 PPG. In fact, nobody else even averages more than 30 points in their playoff career. In addition to this Jordan has the most scoring titles ever at 10. And besides Wilt chamberlain nobody in history even has half as many as Jordan. And was even capable enough to have 10 playoff scoring titles as well proving he can humiliate defense's at any point in the season. Note that Jordan was doing this in an era were points were harder to come across.

Scoring baskets appears to be easier than it was 30 years ago. In Jordan's last prime season (1998) teams averaged 90.3 possessions per game. In 2021 teams averaged 99.9 possessions. In 98' teams averaged 79.7 FGA and in 2021 teams shoot 88.6 shots a game. During the entirety of the 1990s only 2 players ever averaged 30 points in a season (MJ 5x, Karl Malone 1x). But in just the 2020 NBA season alone 3 players had a scoring output over 30 or more..more than the entire 90s decade combined! Which can guide us to the conclusion that there are more baskets to go around nowadays. And there are a couple of things that caused this. And these are also some of the reasons that lead me to the conclusion that Jordan would be a better scorer in the modern era. 

1: Ever since Stephen Curry's first MVP season we have seen a burst in 3 point shooting. Just to put this in perspective teams average almost triple the amount of 3 pointer than they did in 1998. And a 3 point shot is worth 33% more points per basket. So these points are quick to add up over a course of 82 games. Because of this we can assume that Jordan would shot more 3s today to adapt his game. Although MJ wont turn into some kinda 3 point sharpshooter we can definitely expect a 3 point shot improvement if Jordan was to play in the modern NBA. And since Jordan would be getting and making more 3 pointers that would ultimately lead to a higher PPG average. 

The problem some people have is that they think Jordan was a bad 3 point shooter. But in reality for the majority of Jordans career he was actually someone you had to respect when he was beyond the arc. However Jordan would start his career off as a bad 3 point shooter but developed as his career went on. Jordan from 1990-1997 shot 37.2% from behind the arc. For comparison in those same years the average NBA player shot 34.2% from 3. So we can come to the assumption that Jordan was actually a above average 3 point shooter during the 90s. If Jordan were a player today my guess would be that he would shoot 36-37% from 3PT on a little over 4 attempts per night. 

2: Hand checking was removed in the 2003-04 season. Hand checking is when a defensive player puts his hips on an offensive player and can maneuver him to wherever they wanted him to go. As an offensive player hand-checking makes offense more difficult including scoring. Have you ever tried a crossover dribble or tried to change directions when someone has their hands all over your midsection? As an offensive player it's a very hard thing to overcome. And now that this isn't allowed anymore we can come to the conclusion that it would be easier for Jordan to create space ultimately leading to a higher PPG output.

3: In 2001-02 NBA season the NBA decided to create the 3 second rule. Back in the 90s big man were allowed to live in the paint for as long as they felt like which even makes protecting the rim easier for them. But now you can't do that and big man have to be constantly moving and constantly getting out of the painted era. As a result of this rule we see more layups and dunks go completely uncontested. And Jordan being the all time great finisher that he is I can only predict he would take advantage of this. 

A good rim protecting big man is still a valuable asset on any given roster in the modern era but not nearly as valuable as they were during the 80s and 90s era. Back then there were players such as Hakeem Olajuwon, Mark Eaton, Manute Bol, Dikembe Mutombo. 

Let's go over Michael Jordans 1987 season. This is the year Jordan would average 37.1 PPG a feat so impressive that it has never been reached since. If we compare stats from teams in 1987 to teams in 2020 and 2021 we would see that pace was about the same, FGA were near the same, teams PPG average were about the same as well. But the major difference is in 2020 teams averaged 34.7 3 pointers and in 1987 teams average 4.7. Now I already briefly went over this earlier in the text but if Jordan averaged 37.1 PPG in a season were he averaged 0.8 3 pointers, in a time were flagrant fouls didn't exist so teams were extra physically simply because they were allowed to. And in an era were hand checking  was a thing and in an era were the 3 second rule wasn't a thing. Because of this it wouldn't be to far fetch to say that a peak scoring 1987 Michael Jordan would average 42 points per game in the 2020s. 

However if were Just talking about 1985-1998 Michael Jordan guess would be around 34-38 PPG. So not quite 40 and not quite 50 but a still a very high number.